Able Archer 83: The Near-Nuclear Accident

In November 1983, NATO conducted 'Able Archer 83,' a command post exercise simulating a conventional conflict escalating to nuclear war. The exercise was remarkably realistic, involving actual changes to communication procedures and high-level participation, including a simulated launch order. Soviet intelligence, already alarmed by Reagan's aggressive anti-Soviet rhetoric and the recent deployment of Pershing II missiles in West Germany, misread the exercise as a possible cover for an actual first strike. Soviet nuclear forces in Eastern Europe were placed on unusually high alert. Able Archer 83 was, by the accounts of those who later reviewed the intelligence, the most dangerous moment of the Cold War since the Cuban Missile Crisis — and unlike the Missile Crisis, it passed without either side being fully aware of how close it had come to catastrophe. KGB officer Oleg Gordievsky, a British double agent, reported on Soviet alarm to London, which conveyed the information to Washington. Reagan was reportedly shocked and shaken when briefed on the Soviet reaction — he had not understood how genuinely frightened Moscow was of an American first strike. The episode contributed to his willingness to engage in serious arms control negotiations with Gorbachev when the new Soviet leader came to power.

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